Analysis of the global energy storage market

2024-10-07 15:21:01

I. In recent years, the global energy storage market has shown a trend of rapid growth. From 2019 to 2023, the annual compound growth rate of new global energy storage installations reached 108%. In 2023, China, the United States and Europe continued to dominate the new energy storage market, accounting for 87% of the global market, of which China accounted for about 48% of the global new energy storage installations, surpassing the United States for two consecutive years to become the country with the highest share of new global energy storage market.

Although the growth rate of the North American and European markets slowed down in 2023, resulting in energy storage demand not meeting expectations at the beginning of the year and a slowdown in growth, in the long run, the energy storage market is still full of opportunities and development space. It is estimated that the global energy storage market will have an average annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 23% from 2024 to 2030, and the total energy storage demand will reach 828GWh by 2030.

II. Analysis of major regional markets

1. China:

Policy promotion: The development of China's energy storage cannot be separated from the strong support of policies. Energy storage was mentioned for the first time in the Outline of the 12th Five-Year Plan and was set as a future development goal. During the 13th Five-Year Plan, energy storage was listed as a strategic emerging industry for key development. During the 14th Five-Year Plan, provinces across the country successively issued "new energy + energy storage" policy goals, clarifying the proportion and duration of photovoltaic and wind power installed capacity with storage. Under the policy of mandatory storage, energy storage on the power generation side ushered in rapid development.

Market status: In 2023, China's new energy storage installed capacity will be 21.5GW/46.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 193%/194%. As of December 2023, China has put into operation a total of 86.5GW of power storage projects. The proportion of lithium batteries in new energy storage has further increased, from 94% in 2022 to 97.3% in 2023. At the beginning of 2024, the energy storage bidding market was not weak in the off-season, and the scale continued to grow rapidly.

Development trend: With the year-on-year increase in photovoltaic and wind power generation, the demand on the power generation side and the grid side accounted for 78%, contributing the main increase. In the future, the proportion of long-term energy storage demand (more than 4 hours) is expected to increase, and the industrial and commercial energy storage field has also achieved a breakthrough from 0 to 1. With the deepening of power market reform, diversified business models will boost the rapid growth of industrial and commercial energy storage demand on the user side. It is estimated that by 2030, China's energy storage market demand will reach about 340GWh, and the annual compound growth rate of energy storage demand from 2023 to 2030 will be around 31%.

2. United States:

Market drive: The US power market is relatively mature, and energy storage installation is mainly driven by the market.

Market status: In 2023, the installed capacity of energy storage (large storage) above 1MW in the United States will be 6.36GW, a year-on-year increase of 64%. However, due to the complexity of energy storage grid connection, transformer shortage, high interest rates and lithium carbonate prices, the completion rate of energy storage installation in each month of the United States in 2023 has always been lower than expected. Compared with the expectations at the beginning of the year, the completion rate for the whole year of 2023 is 74%. From a single month perspective, the completion rate of most months is less than 50%, and many projects are constantly delayed.

Development trend: In the long run, under the stimulus of ITC subsidies, energy transformation and market drive, the North American energy storage market will continue to maintain rapid growth. It is estimated that by 2030, the demand for energy storage in North America will exceed 230GWh, still the second largest energy storage market in the world. States in the United States have successively announced mandatory energy storage target plans, clarified energy storage installation plans, and the grid transformation is imminent, and energy transformation is also accelerating, all of which will promote the development of energy storage. On the user side, the ITC subsidy policy includes household storage in the subsidy scope, which is also expected to promote the development of user-side energy storage in the United States.

3. Europe:

Preliminary development: Europe started early due to electricity and other issues. Under the influence of the energy crisis, the demand for household storage in Europe rose rapidly at the end of 2022.

Current situation: In 2023, the poor economic environment in Europe and the decline in electricity prices have weakened rigid demand, resulting in a slowdown in the growth rate of energy storage market demand. The European market is currently in the "destocking" stage.

Future Outlook: Despite some challenges, energy storage still has broad development prospects in Europe as energy transformation advances and reliance on renewable energy increases.

III. Market drivers1. Energy transformation demand: Global renewable energy generation is rising year by year. To achieve the goal of "carbon neutrality", the proportion of renewable energy will continue to rise. However, the volatility and randomness of wind power and photovoltaic power generation increase the pressure of peak and frequency regulation, causing problems such as the decline in grid voltage quality. Energy storage has become a key technology to effectively alleviate the pressure of large-scale renewable energy grid connection, which can significantly improve the absorption level of renewable energy such as wind and light, and support distributed power and microgrids.

2. Policy support: Governments of various countries have introduced policies to encourage the development of energy storage, such as China's "new energy + energy storage" policy and the United States' ITC subsidy policy. These policies provide strong support and guarantee for the development of the energy storage market.

3. Power market reform: The deepening of power market reform has made the value of energy storage in the power system more reflected, creating a favorable market environment for the development of energy storage. For example, the time-of-use electricity price policy has been implemented in various parts of China, and the peak-valley price difference has continued to expand, and the economic benefits of industrial and commercial energy storage have gradually become prominent; the US energy storage market is also constantly exploring new business models and profit models.

IV. Market competition pattern

The global energy storage market is highly competitive, and major energy storage companies include Tesla, CATL, BYD, etc. These companies have strong competitiveness in technology research and development, product performance, cost control, etc.

At the same time, with the continuous development of the market, new participants are constantly emerging, and the market competition pattern may change. In addition, the market competition pattern in different regions is also different. For example, domestic brands dominate the Chinese market, while in overseas markets, Chinese companies need to compete with international brands.

V. Summary

At present, the global energy storage market has broad prospects, but it also faces many challenges and risks. In future development, it requires the joint efforts of the government, enterprises and all sectors of society to promote the innovation of energy storage technology and the reduction of costs, and improve policies and market environment to achieve healthy and sustainable development of the energy storage market.

First type: Material identification code

This type of identification code is usually printed on the top of the battery, such as ICR, IMR, NCR, IFR, LTO, etc. Each of them has a special meaning. ICR: The positive electrode material is lithium cobalt oxide. IMR: The positive electrode material is lithium manganese oxide. NCR: The positive electrode material is lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (commonly known as ternary). IFR: The positive electrode material is lithium iron phosphate. LTO: The positive electrode material is lithium titanate. This way, you can identify the material used for the battery based on the spray code information, without being dece.

Second type: Capacity voltage coding

Generally speaking, manufacturers also label the capacity and power on the battery, such as common 1800mAh, 2000mAh, 2200mAh, 2400mAh, 2500mAh, 2600mAh, etc. These all refer to the capacity of the battery. Some manufacturers also spray the corresponding capacity on the battery, such as the 3.7V 18650 battery with a power of 6.6Wh for 1800mAh. Some unscrupulous shops on Taobao take advantage of consumers' lack of understanding of batteries and maliciously sell power as capacity. In fact, to convert it, a 3.7V 18650 battery is calculated as mwh ÷ 3.7V=mAh. The actual capacity of 18650 with 4000mwh is 1081mah. Everyone must be careful when choosing batteries and not be deceived by unscrupulous merchants.

And voltage coding refers to the voltage of a single battery, with different materials having different positive electrode voltages, such as lithium manganese oxide (3.6VIMR), lithium cobalt oxide (3.7V/3.8VICR), lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (commonly known as ternary, 3.6VNCR), lithium iron phosphate (3.2VIFR), and lithium titanate (2.3V/2.4VLTO). Some manufacturers label the full voltage, while others label the rated voltage. The voltage labeling methods vary depending on the manufacturer.

Third type: Manufacturing production batch number

The manufacturing batch number of each manufacturer is different. The specific content is about the manufacturing year and month. By understanding the production batch number code of the manufacturer, you can know when the battery was manufactured. I won't get old batteries.